The Firmex Deal Flow Bulletin: Q1 2023

The Firmex Deal Flow Bulletin uses virtual data room activity to forecast the volume of deals for Q1 2023.

  • Firmex projects that deal announcements in the first quarter of 2023 will be 17% higher than in the final quarter of 2022, using its new multi-factor machine-learning based model.
  • Deals in Europe will rise by 2% from the fourth quarter, according to the new model.
  • Looking back at 2022, middle-market merger advisors said they had a good year, but not quite as good as in 2021. Four in ten of them said their volume last year was better than average while only three in ten said it was below average.
  • Looking forward, 58% of advisors expect volume to increase in 2023, with only 17% saying it will fall. 
  • Overall, advisor sentiments are favorable. Just over half of advisors (53%) describe their feeling about the market as positive. Only 13% expressed negative feelings.
  • For 2023, twice as many advisors say valuations will  fall (43%) as say they will rise (21%).
  • Healthcare deals will increase in 2023, according to 60% of advisors active in the sector. Last year, only 23% expected more healthcare activity.
  • Three out of five advisors said the number of sellers in the market would increase in 2023. A year ago, only a quarter of advisors said more companies would put themselves on the block.
  • Merger advisors completed 63% of the deals they started working on in 2022, up slightly from 61% in 2021. Most say their success rate will increase in 2023.
  • Half of the advisors said that access to financing will be a significant challenge as they try to close deals this year, a sharp rise from last year.

A New Forecast for Deal Volumes

Along with our forecast for deal flow in Q1 2023, The Firmex Deal Flow Bulletin presents readers with a look into changes in valuations, success rates, and buyers and sellers. 

Readers of the bulletin will come away with deal volume insights gained from knowledge of virtual data room activity, as well as a grasp of what current M&A advisor sentiment is for the market for the first quarter of the year.


Brought to you by Team Firmex.